Capital and job creation
Nigeria
Can a grant help small businesses hire?
YouWiN!
What the evidence shows
Among new businesses, the third survey round in the author’s version estimates a 22.9 percentage-point increase in the probability of having at least ten workers, against 11% in the control group. The final article appeared in 2017; the chart uses that round, not the five-year horizon of the final abstract. [1][2]
- Control
- 11%
- Control + estimated effect
- 33.9%
New businesses; third round in the author’s version (Table 3). 33.9% = 11% + 22.9 percentage points: the control mean plus the estimated effect, not an observed raw rate for recipients. [2]
The YouWiN! competition funded business plans through capital grants. Some winners among semifinalists were selected at random, allowing recipients to be compared with non-recipients. [1][2]
Select business plans
Randomize part of the capital support
Compare hiring and survival
Costs and delivery
The average grant was about US$50,000 per winner. This is not the cost per job or a recommended subsidy level for Brazil. [1][2]
Limits of the comparison
Participants had already been selected through a competition. The measure includes the owner and different types of workers; it does not establish the country’s net employment gain.
OpenGov3's interpretation
What it can teach Brazil
How can projects capable of hiring be selected and their additional results measured, without rewarding political connections?
What to monitor when adapting it
- New businesses in operation and survival over the follow-up period
- Workers by employment status, with the owner identified separately
- Additional hires relative to the comparison group
- Total support cost per business and per estimated additional job
These are criteria for analysis, not commitments already made or estimated outcomes for Brazil. A well-documented practice is not, by itself, causal proof of an entire country's success.
Sources consulted
Consulted on 10/29/2026. Each result retains its observed period; institutional descriptions and impact evaluations have different scopes.
- McKenzie — Identifying and Spurring High-Growth Entrepreneurship (AER, 2017) (opens in a new tab)
2017 AER article: YouWiN! experiment among semifinalists, with five-year follow-up in the final abstract.
- McKenzie — YouWiN! (author version, Table 3) (opens in a new tab)
Author version with appendices: the numeric profile uses the third round in Table 3.